NFL week 10 tips, predictions, free bets and sign up offers: Five bets to look out for this week

If Aaron Rodgers didn’t decide to trust Joe Rogan over modern science, we’d have gone 5/5 on the picks for the second time in three weeks.

As it is, the Ivermectin-taking wizard should be back for Sunday, but will his Packers feature in my Week 10 picks? Read on to find out…

(2021 Predictions W-L-D: 24-20-1 53%)

Lions @ Steelers (-8.5) – 18:00

Please don’t stop reading just because we’re talking about the Lions.

There are actually a few reasons that Detroit could keep this close: Firstly, they’re a team coming off a bye, against a Steelers team on a short week, coming off a highly charged, physical Monday night game.

Secondly, for all the mockery of Dan Campbell, he’s shown a semblance of getting his teams to react after humiliation.

Since Week 2 the Lions have gone: Blowout, kept it close, blowout, kept it close, blowout, kept it close, blowout… Which would indicate a bounceback this weekend.

As you’d expect after reading that, the Lions are 4-4 against the spread this season…

More surprising is that Pittsburgh are a lowly 3-5 (1-4 at home). I stopped short of picking Denver last week, before they shocked the Cowboys.

I’ll stop short again but should Detroit get win number one this weekend, remember where you read it first.

Prediction: Lions 21 Steelers 24 (Lions +8.5)

Jaguars @ Colts (-10.5) – 18:00

There’s every chance that I look back on this pick with incredulity come 9pm Sunday, but I can’t ignore this double digit spread.

The Jags’ ability to do Jag things is unrivalled (I’m still angry about their performance against Seattle and I don’t even support them) but there are building blocks in place: This season they’ve beat Buffalo up, held their nerve against Miami, should have beat the Bengals and outplayed Denver for most of the game.

The Colts will provide a test no doubt but in this divisional match up, you have an Indy team that has the third worst pass defense in the whole league for yards allowed.

Trevor Lawrence is starting to find his feet (just two INTs in the last five games) and the Jags should also have star RB James Robinson back on the field.

Indy shipped 21 points in garbage time to the Jets last Thursday so there’s always a chance of a backdoor cover in case of a blowout, but again I think this goes close.

Don’t let me down, Duval.   

Prediction: Jaguars 24 Colts 27 (Jaguars +10.5)

Saints @ Titans (-3) – 18:00

NAP of the week time: I don’t normally single out games in this column but in the words of a certain Fox broadcaster: “Like it? I love it!”

Tennessee, a 7-2 record and 7-2 against the spread, at home, against a Trevor Siemian-led Saints team? Yes please.

To give credit to Siemian, he’s played better than expected but even then he only completed 61% of his throws against Atlanta on Sunday.

If you flip it and assume Taysom Hill will return as QB, you’ve got a guy who has been out multiple weeks, needing to get up to speed, against the most physical team in Football.

The stats back up that last sentence: 27 sacks (second in the league), 402 solo tackles (second in the league); they physically grind you down and with Jeremy McNichols and Adrian Peterson, they have capable backs to plug the huge Derrick Henry-sized hole on offense.

I just don’t see why the spread is only three points. Get this while you can.

Prediction: Saints 20 Titans 31 (Titans -3)

Vikings @ Chargers (-2.5) – 21:05

They covered (just) on Sunday and I see the Chargers covering (just) again against a baffling Vikings team.

Minnesota have been in one score games seven times out of eight this season.

They’ve been on the wrong side of the score five times.

That’s not a statistical quirk, in my mind it shows their limitations as a franchise, and that’s without going into the whole Kirk Cousins debate.

In the most painfully obvious statement of the day, LA are at their best when Justin Herbert is playing well.

And boy is he humming right now: After two straight poor performances he torched the Eagles with an 84% completion percentage and a 123.2 passer rating.

That’s now 12 TDs and just 3 INTs in his last five games. I don’t see Cousins keeping up with the firepower of Herbert, especially with the Chargers having a sneaky-good pass defense (second fewest yards allowed in the league).

Back the Vikings to find another way to have their heart ripped from them.

Prediction: Vikings 30 Chargers 33 (Chargers -2.5)

Seahawks @ Packers (-3.5) – 21:25

In this ‘Odell Beckham JR has reportedly expressed a desire to play for these teams’ derby, I will hang my hat on the Packers ASSUMING Aaron Rodgers returns as QB (I’m not having Jordan Love try to win me a five-fold ever again).

In a weird game against Kansas City, you got to see Green Bay’s strengths outside of QB, while simultaneously seeing just how important their current QB1 is.

Russell Wilson should be back for Seattle but overall I just see the Packers as a more complete team, and one that doesn’t have a glaring special teams issue (just two forced fumbles and three INTs, second fewest in the league).

The Packers are spread kings; 8-1 this season and they did end up covering against the Chiefs, with the line moving to +7 before kick-off.

They’re also a perfect 3-0 on the spread as a home favourite.

Beckham could make a tangible difference to either of these teams, but with this game (almost certainly) going on without him, I can only back a Green Bay team who haven’t lost a regular season home game at Lambeau in 374 days.

Prediction: Seahawks 18 Packers 28 (Packers -3.5)


Lions +8.5
Jaguars +10.5
Titans -3
Chargers -2.5
Packers -3.5

Pays 25.6/1


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